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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20383 09/15/04 11:40 PM
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The scariest thing about all this is that Mark Waid believes his own prediction. This isn't a Stan Lee type boast to boost sales, it's what he actually believes. It just goes to show how delusional Waid has become, and how impaired his judgement is. Those sales figures on Birthright and FF are nothing to write home about. Waid is descending to Peter David levels of sales, where a loyal readership will follow him around, but not much else.

At least Stan Lee knew when he was full of shit - Waid doesn't.


My powers are Legion!
Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20384 09/16/04 07:03 AM
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After seeing the buzz generated by the mere solicit and cover image for LSH # 1, I predict that both LSH # 1 AND # 2 will place solidly within the Top 50.

# 3 and # 4 will see a drop, but based on the book's quality, # 5 and #6 will either see a jump back up or a continuation of the standard comic sales erosion.


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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20385 09/16/04 07:11 AM
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And don't forget:

Lashie Poo is a famous advice columnist, so he has insight that few others have.

If he says it, then it will be so! laugh love


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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20386 09/16/04 07:14 AM
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The Princess is correct!


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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20387 09/16/04 07:24 AM
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Quote
Originally posted by MLLASH:
After seeing the buzz generated by the mere solicit and cover image for LSH # 1, I predict that both LSH # 1 AND # 2 will place solidly within the Top 50.
Well, considering that July's 50th place was Thor #82, with estimated sales of 36,094, if it doesn't keep above that level, there's no buzz there and it'll be lucky to see out the year.

Doom Patrol #1: 39,309 (46)
Doom Patrol #2: 33,595 (58)


My views are my own and do not reflect those of everyone else... and I wouldn't have it any other way.

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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20388 09/16/04 08:03 AM
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Quote
Originally posted by Nightcrawler:
Quote
Originally posted by Shadow Kid:
[b]How can the Legion succeed when even its fans want it to fail?
How can you be a fan of something that hasn't happened yet. We're fans of the established Legion, not a "re-imagined" one. I'll wait and see if I like it. (And probably miss the good old days still.) [/b]
On the other hand, how can you hate something that hasn't happened yet, either...


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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20389 09/16/04 11:42 AM
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LSH #1 will chart in the Top 25, over 50k sales. There will be a higher than usual drop for #2, but also WAY higher than usual reorder activity. After increasingly small drops for #3 & #4, we will see that initial orders on #5 actually beat out the initial orders on #2.

After that, standard decline of 2%, plus or minus, each month.

By #12, sales will still be over 40k, with a TOP 35 ranking.

Thanks to addiional new material in the collections, these trades will sell MUCH better than expected, and will continue on a regular basis.

Although it will not have much effect on sales, Legion characters will begin popping up on Smallville towards the end of this season.

By issue 25, DC will have secured a distribution deal to get it's comics into Wal-Mart. At that time they will also exercise their option and buy Diamond, who will handle the Wal-Mart deal.

At this point, the book will increase to 150-200k in sales, and will actually slowly INCREASE over time. The book will actually rise in ranking relative to the other DC books, which also see hugh jumps in sales due to the Wal-Mart deal.

Sales on the trades, offered through Wal-Mart as well as books stores, will also increase exponetially.

By 2007 there will be a cartoon network series. It will be based on the current versions of the characters. A flood of action figures will follow.

By 2008 LSH will not only be the best selling DC book, but also the best selling comics book PERIOD.

So sayeth the soothsayer!

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20390 09/16/04 11:53 AM
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Originally posted by Kid Prime:
On the other hand, how can you hate something that hasn't happened yet, either...
Cause it's replacing something you do love?

And I didn't say I hate what they've created, just the concept of rebooting. I'm waiting for judgement on that.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20391 09/16/04 02:04 PM
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Yeah it can be the best comic ever...still something I liked very much is over.

It's funny cause we have people that one the most obscure factors of Legion history thrown in yet get upset when it is pointed out that it may be another small legion speed bump that reduces sales.

The reason the Legion is getting a reboot is b/c of sales. The reason many Legion fans have suffered is b/c sales. I rather sacrifice some of my small personal wishes to make this book more of a hit.

But who knows maybe the Super-Pets and Super-Subs can really make this a #1 book. smile

Jorge

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20392 09/20/04 06:55 AM
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The ICV2 August sales figures are out. The Simone/Jurgens arc failed to deliver saleswise, ending the series on a weak note with a drop of 1,538 copies from issue #33. DnA couldn't have done worse with their Cub story, imo. So what was the point of cutting their run short for a story that portrays a not-too-distant future that will never occur? Beats the heck out of me.

Legion #33 -- rank 89 -- 24,865
Legion #34 -- rank 105 -- 23,903
Legion #35 -- rank 97 -- 24,207
Legion #36 -- rank 99 -- 23,717
Legion #37 -- rank 99 -- 23,479
Legion #38 -- rank 100 -- 23,327 (--6.2%)


Furthermore, it looks like DC readers aren't embracing reboots of any kind these days.

The Firestorm reboot is tanking fast. Issue #1 debuted at 34 on the May charts (46,292 copies + 1,671 reorders in June). Issue #4 ranked 80 (28,402 copies) in August.

Bryne's Doom Patrol reboot is doing just as poorly. Issue #1 debuted at 46 in June (39,303 copies + 1,981 reorders in July). Issue #3 ranked 82 (28,098 copies) last month.

The trend doesn't bode well for the new LSH, though LSH enjoys the advantage of an installed base of some 23-25K steady readers, most of whom will probably jump back on board after the relatively short (3 month) publication hiatus. Plus, Waid and Kitson have greater sales pull than Dan Jolley and a healthier reputation than John Byrne. Even so, the predictions on this thread of 30-35K after 10 months seem realistic, even generous, in light of these examples.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20393 09/20/04 07:14 AM
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To be honest, I don't think the first three issues' sales can be used to say so much about readers' interest than it does about retailers'. Typically, for the first three issues you're mostly seeing the retailers' predictions for how many people will sample and drop the title. At least that used to be the case when I would look through sales numbers, but it's been a while since I was that much into the hobby.

How is the Byrne Doom Patrol doing compared to the Arcudi run? I thought that one started pretty low, but stayed consistent. If so, there's a slight bump there, one probably not big enough to justify Bryne's pay, tho.

Still, I'm not sure if the most important factor, buzz, is there. I don't think it was there for Doom Patrol or Firestorm and I'm not seeing it for the Legion. Like I said, this needs promotion and so far I'm kinda underwhelmed by DC's efforts.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20394 09/20/04 07:31 AM
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Byrne's DP is doing somewhat better (about 5K iirc) than the Arcudi run at the same juncture, but perhaps not well enough to justify the expense of a reboot. The numbers are at the DCMB/DP board.

Even if DP and Firestorm leveled off at around 30K, they would still be a disappointment. It's hard to imagine a signficant upsurge in sales for either title unless there's a change of direction or a change in the creative team.

The new LSH is featured on the cover of October's Diamond Previews (a big deal) but I agree that DC Marketing hasn't done a very good job so far.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20395 09/20/04 07:42 AM
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DP was fairly weak it's first two issues, as it was still wrapping up the JLA tie-in. #3, however, KICKED ASS> Highly recommended.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20396 09/20/04 07:54 AM
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To be fair, other titles have recovered from a weak start. The 1994 LSH reboot is a good example. It started very poorly saleswise, but caught on by Annual #2 and did respectable if not exciting sales (roughly 26-28K) until the end of the interminable 20th century arc. After that, it began to tank.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20397 09/20/04 07:35 PM
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I've never yet had a book drop in sales. Not to point fingers at anyone, but I believe the immediate reaction when people found out the book would be rebooted was that many would just wait. That's what we unfortunately expected. I believe Mark will deliver a hit, and I frankly think I could have, as well, given a stint at the regular book.

However, I am with ya on wishing DnA had been given space to finish their story. Don't really know what happened there, and DnA are too professional to get into details.

We did okay--I think they were expecting a much bigger drop.

Gail

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20398 09/21/04 12:00 PM
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Originally posted by Gail Simone:
... frankly think I could have, as well, given a stint at the regular book.
I re-read your whole arc a couple days ago in one sitting, and one of the things I discovered at the end? I WAS CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT YOU WOULD DO NEXT!

You really had a different edge to your Legion. I was completely involved in the interactions between members, cadets and civilians, and the larger sense of scope of the Legion and the 30th century (DnA, for all their galactic journeys, stayed on Earth for most of their regular series run).

I also enjoyed the innovative foes they faced across the ENTIRE team (the prison break, the anti-reason JLA, and the hyper-evolving bug aliens). I liked that method of handling the size of the Legion: break them up into teams handling crises across the universe and connect the dots through the support staff (which makes a lot of sense). You managed to juggle those stories well, considering the constraints of working it into a monthly serial form and the editorial edicts incorporated into the arc.

When the next creative change comes up, I definitely hope they come to you 2nd. (I always wanted to see a Morrison Legion of Super Heroes -a 30th century filled with his mad vision & idealism & energy, so he's 1st on my list, then you. But he'd only stay for 6-8 issues before moving onto his next project anyway. THEN you'd get it. )
laugh

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20399 09/27/04 08:30 PM
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I have been a die hard Legion fan and have gotten tired of the reboots as well. I am going to give this new Legion a try because I am a Legion fan and want them to continue. Continue into what is the question. Is Waid going to change what we know and love about this group? Will the changes be so far out there that the die hard fan walks away? I hope not.

Long Live the Legion !!


Looking for Earth Prime.
Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20400 09/28/04 10:26 PM
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The success of the new LSH will depend a lot on how strongly the first issue starts. Too many series these days are into the whole "decompression" thing. But writers and editors need to recognize that today's comics fan IS NOT GOING TO WAIT AROUND for the book to get going.

Examples and exceptions.......

Ultimate Spider-Man: the title that showed the industry that this slow pace could be done. The same origin story that took 10 pages in 1962 was stretched over what? 4 months? In any case, it worked because readers knew exactly where the story was going; this time they could enjoy the ride.

New Firestorm: didn't because A) fans of the original were alienated before issue one, B) fans of the concept got ZERO gratification as to the how and why of the new Firestorm in issue one and C) new readers got treated to a boring story with a nonsensical payoff at the end.

The Ultimates: plods along actionless for a solid 3 issues. But it worked because issue one delivered World War Freakin' TWO as the TEASER which gave readers a taste of the widescreen action to come.

Essentially, comics need to take a cue from 1980s anime. In the first episode of any series, there'd be *something* cool to tease viewers with. The spaceship would fire its Big Gun. The hero would dazzle with his Incredible Fighting Prowess. The heroine would Service the Fans. (Or something. Or all three.)

The comics industry has gotten so used to the hardcore fanbase that it's forgotten the old basics. 1) every issue is someone's first (hopefully). 2) every issue should stand on its own merits somehow, even if it's a multi-parter. 3) Make 'em want to come back next month. The last is the only one many creators bother to address, but they usually rely on a weak mystery or cliffhanger to do so instead of peppering the whole story with reasons to back for more.

Sigh. Comics ain't what they used to be.

Bottom line, again, is that WnK need to start strong. They already have the fan alienation thing against them, but they can win fans of the concept over fairly easily with the right approach. With 30 pages of story, pacing shouldn't be difficult. And Waid isn't given to the drawn-out storytelling, anyway (his longest arc in Fantastic Four was maybe 5 issues. Most are two- or three-parters). Thus, the curious non-fans may be given ample reason to come back for the next issue and thus become new fans.


-- Still here to help.
Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20401 10/14/04 03:21 PM
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Odds of Waid beating Superman/Batman (presuming Turner doesn't slow Pacheco's arc down still more): 100:1

Odds of Waid beating Superman: 100:1

Odds of Waid beating Astonishing X-Men: 100:1

Odds of Waid beating Ultimates 2 #1: 10 000:1

We're getting closer - anyone think this has any chance of being DC's top-selling book, let alone the top seller full stop?


My views are my own and do not reflect those of everyone else... and I wouldn't have it any other way.

Cobalt, Reboot & iB present 21st Century Legion: Earth War .
Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20402 11/25/04 01:04 PM
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In the wake of the Wizard Hype Machine blowing over Waid's LSH, found this here , with a short hype article on Superman: Birthright, excerpted from Wizard. At the end was this:

Quote
PROJECTED SALES: With Waid trumpting the maxi-series as his "dream project" and the triumphant return of Yu's gritty pencils, Birthright will find it's "right"-ful spot amoung the Top 15 books, moving 80,000 copies. CS

[Sarcky side-note: Has he referred to this LSH relaunch as his "dream project" at any point? Just OoC.]
The reality: http://www.legionworld.net/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=002307;p=2#000017


My views are my own and do not reflect those of everyone else... and I wouldn't have it any other way.

Cobalt, Reboot & iB present 21st Century Legion: Earth War .
Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20403 11/25/04 02:18 PM
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'boot, just come out of that closet and admit you love love love the new look Legion already will ya? All this posturing smacks of shades of "the laddie protesteth too much" laugh


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Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20404 11/25/04 02:21 PM
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'Binger, swear to God I'm being 100% honest here. I don't like this half-revert half-new concept for the Legion, I don't like that the Legion I like is being shoved aside for it, and damn me for all eternity if I've lied in this sentence.

If I'm "posturing," it's because it seems like everyone else is being sugary-sweet positive about it. It's like living in a bad Disney movie.


My views are my own and do not reflect those of everyone else... and I wouldn't have it any other way.

Cobalt, Reboot & iB present 21st Century Legion: Earth War .
Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20405 11/25/04 02:48 PM
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I think Mark was overselling the book if he thinks it will be number one, but I do think it will do better than the previous Legion book.

I think the first issue will be in the 30-40 range on the top 100, drop to the 50s for issues 2...and maybe lower for issue 3.

Of course, this will be based on retailer orders. It won't be until issue 4 where consumer demand controls the number of issues ordered/sold.

Really can't make a prediction without seeing a couple of completed issues, but based on the previews for issue 1, I think Legion will be a solid, if not stellar, performer.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20406 11/26/04 01:46 AM
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/shrug

If you don't like Mark and Barry's work, don't buy the books. The majority of posts I've read here are from people who are genuinely excited about the new team and Barry K has been gracious enough to upload some sneak-peaks of his art.

I wasn't very impressed with the DnA run and ended up picking up maybe about 10-12 back issues of the stories (at discount). From what I remember, one of the biggest knocks on the Legion series was that it was too big. There were too many members and such a large amount of history that people felt it was too difficult to get into it. Granted, these were the things that we liked about the title but for a new reader, trying to get involved was a daunting task.

Mark has stated that the intends to simplify things in the sense that he's going to concentrate on a smaller core of members and totally fresh storyline without rehashing old villians. If he can keep the characters / arcs interesting, I'll certainly be buying and I'm sure that other people who pick up the #1 (if only for speculative collecting) will keep reading it too.

The key is to make it accessible to new readers.

Re: Take a bet on Legion sales...
#20407 11/26/04 03:44 PM
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Originally posted by Reboot:
'Binger, swear to God I'm being 100% honest here. I don't like this half-revert half-new concept for the Legion, I don't like that the Legion I like is being shoved aside for it, and damn me for all eternity if I've lied in this sentence.

If I'm "posturing," it's because it seems like everyone else is being sugary-sweet positive about it. It's like living in a bad Disney movie.
fair do's sweetheart, I was only teasing you, sorry if you thought I was being mean.

Incidentally I felt the same after the introduction of the SW6 Legion and all the Archie stuff.

Not meaning to talk for anyone else but personally I'm being "sugary sweet" because I see a fresh creative team try to salvage a tired format of a group of characters I've grown very fond of. Like you I'm miffed that the last lot faded out without sorting out the loose ends, but that won't stop me giving the new team a chance.

And you can't deny that Barry's art is GORGEOUS, can you?


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