Legion World Forums LEGION COMPANION The Anywhere Machine NCAA College Football Conference Realignment

And so it has begun...the end of traditional college football as we know it.

On Thursday, Colorado accepted an invitation to leave the Big 12 and join the Pac 10

On Friday, Nebraska accepted an invitation to leave the Big 12 and join the Big 10

Also on Friday, Boise State (home of the blue turf!) accepted an invitation to leave the WAC and join the Mountain West.

By mid week, we will know if the Big 12 is gone for good. It looks likely at this point that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, & Oklahoma State will leave the Big 12 en mass and join Colorado in the Pac 10 creating a Pac 16 Super conference with two 8 team divisions.

Although Texas A&M is supposed to be that 16th team in the Pac 10, they are actually sending signals that they would rather go to the SEC where they would restart their old rivalry with Arkansas.

Oklahoma is also being courted by the SEC and could decide to head east instead of west. If they do that leaves 2 spots open in the anticipated 16 team Pac 10. If they don't the SEC will need to find someone else to recruit in order to balance A&M.

Lots of possible scenarios as to how all the dominoes fall at that point....

Least likely of all is that they all stay put in the Big 12 and possibly look to add two teams to replace Nebraska and Colorado. Some say those two could be BYU and Utah out of the Mountain West. Another possibility is grabbing SMU and Houston from Conference USA or even TCU or Colorado State from the Mountain West.

I'm going to explore some possible scenarios about how this all could play out; how I would like to see it play out; and finally how I really think it will play out. Feel free to add your own thoughts and comments since this is purely speculative.

While most folk seem to be terrified of the changes, I say lett'em flow. Texas A and M in the SEC along with a few others means that USC (The real one, not that phony pretender out in Calli Forn IA... )will have a larger national stage to play on. Varying our schedule a little can't hurt.


Go Cocks!

People still freak out a bit when they see that.

MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (aka What the pundits guess)

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State go to the PAC 10 to join Nebraska. Everyone expects this to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest.

Texas A & M goes to the SEC.

Needing one more school to reach 16 teams with the defection of A & M, the Pac 10 invites Kansas.

The Pac 10 becomes the first 16 team Super conference and opens the floodgates for massive changes across the college landscape.

They will split into 8 team divisions along the following lines:

West ~ USC, UCLA, Stanford, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State.

East ~ Arizona, Arizona State, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Colorado.

Left out in the cold in the Big 12 ~ Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor & Missouri.

The Pac 16 will also argue that they should receive the Big 12's automatic qualifier to the BCS Bowls. Thereby guaranteeing 2 Pac 16 teams go to BCS Bowls

THE DOMINOES BEGIN TO FALL ~ The Big 10 responds.

Remember this is all about conference footprints and media markets. It has very little to do with natural rivalries and what best for the teams.

By adding the six teams from the Big 12, the Pac 16 adds the Denver, Dallas/Fort Worth, Kansas City & Austin media markets to their Pac 16 TV network offering as well as providing early games to compliment the later west coast games to their package. They would now have a major presence in the LA, SF Bay, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas/Fort Worth, Austin, Denver & Kansas City TV markets and will reap huge sums of money for the member schools.

Currently the Big Ten TV Network is the most profitable by far. And the Big Ten will not want to be surpassed so they will be forced to make additional moves.

They have been pressing Notre Dame to finally give up their Independent status and join but ND remains reluctant. So the Big Ten plays their trump card...raiding the Big East, which has given Notre Dame a home for all their other teams besides football.

The Big Ten would likely go after Rutgers, West Virginia (or Pitt), and possibly Missouri (who has been anxiously awaiting an invite from them since the Big 10 announced they were interested in expanding.) With Rutgers they get access to the NYC media market (#1), Missouri gives them St. Louis and possibly part of Kansas City market. West Virginia or Pitt give them access to the Pittsburgh market.

Once the Big 10 scoops up two of the Big East teams, the SEC and ACC will look to grab some of the others and Notre Dame will finally be forced into accepting the wedding ring the Big Ten has been dangling in front of them for years.

THE SEC GOES ALL IN ~ plays a trump card of their own

As soon as the Big Ten begins to move towards adding additional schools, the SEC has no choice but to follow suit and grow to 16 super conference status in order to insure that they are a prominent player at the dawn of the new day in Collge Football and the post BCS era.

They immediately play the Ace they've been keeping in their pocket. All this time, they've been quietly courting Missouri to join Texas A&M in the expanded SEC line up. Since Mizzou has been getting mixed signals at best from the Big Ten, they are likely to jump at the offer from the SEC when it comes. The SEC will then look to add 2 teams from the east to fill out their 16 team roster. Most likely contenders?

While some good options remain in the Big East, like Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia or Pitt, none are as good a fit as Maryland and Virginia Tech from the ACC. Maryland brings Baltimore & DC media markets and VA Tech brings a tradition rich football mystique with it as well as a Corp of Cadets like Texas A & M and a huge, rabid fan base.

THE BIG TEN RESPONDS AND THE ACC IS SUDDENLY IN PLAY.

With the SEC scooping up Maryland and Virginia Tech, The ACC is suddenly vulnerable and the Big Ten needs to fill one more spot because of the lose of Mizzou to the SEC while still trying to force Notre Dame into the fold. The Big Ten coup de grace?

Boston College

BC gives them the Boston market and one of NDs biggest rivals. It also forces the ACC to go after some of the remaining Big East teams and finally leaves Note Dame without any viable options.

This creates a Big Ten 16 team super conference with the following schools split into two divisions...

East ~ Penn State, Boston College, West Virginia, Rutgers, Purdue, Indiana, Ohio State, Wisconsin.

West ~ Notre Dame, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern.

In the meantime, The SEC would also have reached Super 16 status and have the following divisional line up.

East ~ Florida, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Maryland, Virginia Tech

West ~ Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A & M, & Missouri

Wow Vee, that scenario you have worked out seems very logical and likely! It's going to be an interesting few weeks!

Biggest shocker? ND has to join a conference?

As an ND fan, Cobie, is that something you'd be for or opposed to?

No, I actually think its about time they joined a conference. I do like teasing and screwing with people who complain about it though. But it's not a big deal to me.

Maybe joining a conference will kick-start the program again (for the third time in 10 years ).

BIGGEST SHOCKER OF ALL! ~ The Big 12 survives to play another day.

Commissioner Beebe of the Big 12 pulled off the biggest play of the year. With the help of some nervous allies across the college landscape and media, he managed to show Texas (and the others) that they could be best off by staying in the Big 12 and negotiating a new TV contract for the Big 12 conference. Some how he managed to convince Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A & M to turn down their respective offers from the Pac 10 and SEC (they all had them in hand just waiting for their Regents to officially approve the move)

Much of this was possible because of the intense pressure brought to bear by Baylor alums on Texas politicians. Also, most of the pols wanted UT and A&M to stay together but A&M would have been much better off in the SEC than in the Pac 10. The only way to maintain the rivalry was for all of them to stand pat.

Rumor has it that some influential outsiders (including Notre Dame, and some Big East and ACC officials helped Beebe behind the scenes in putting together a winning argument.

The Big 12 will remain a 10 team conference and give up their championship game. They will get to distribute the $20 Million dollars in penalties that Nebraska and Colorado will have to pay for leaving. Once the new TV contracts are negotiated, the member schools should receive annual revenues in the same range as those in the Big 10, Pac 10 and SEC and they can still create their own school TV network. This was the huge selling point for Texas. Once Texas confirmed that they would not be allowed to do so in the new Pac 10, the deal was done.

So, the Big 12 lives on to play another day with 10 teams instead of 12;

The Big 10 will likely stand pat for now since they have been unable to pry ND out of it's golden dome and will play as a 12 team conference with two divisions and a championship game;

And the Pac 10? They appear to be the big losers in this gamble. They got Colorado who jumped early but brings little to the table. They did not get the teams they really wanted...the Longhorns and Sooners. And they are now an 11 team conference in search of a twelfth. Most likely option? Utah

Stay tuned. We should know before too long how this ends up but for now it appears as if the seismic shock waves were averted for the time being.

And the Pac 10 has made it official and invited Utah to join them out of the Mountain West. I expect that the Utes will, in order to insure an opportunity to play in a national championship game if they continue to succeed as they have the past few years. But, wouldn't it be funny if they said, "You know what, no thanks!"

Vee, good job on all of this. Its turned out to be less of the big change people thought it would be, but then, it could all change tomorrow as well. Nothing is forever.